Friday, August 31, 2012

As Bank Profits Plunged In 2011, Banker Bonuses... Rose

It will come as no surprise to many but everyone's favorite enemy #1, the US banker, decided to give himself a well-earned pay-rise in 2011 - according to data from Moody's Analytics (via Crain's). What is perhaps a little more surprising is the sheer gall of it given that the financial industry profits plunged over 70% from $27.6bn in 2010 to a mere $7.7bn in 2011. While the rise in salaries is not large, and the average man on the street actually saw a bigger rise, the critical point is that for two years in a row - from 2009 to 2010, and now from 2010 to 2011 - banking industry profits have dropped like a stone but the average salary of those oh-so-deserving 'Wall-Street'ers has risen.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-profits-plunged-2011-banker-bonuses-rose

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Spain's Scariest Chart

Up until now, the title of "Spain's scariest chart" belonged to one depicting its youth (and general) unemployment, both of which are so off the charts it is not even funny (especially to those millions of Spaniards who are currently unemployed). As of today we have a contender for joint ownership of said title - Spain's monthly deposit outflows, which in July hit the highest amount ever, and where the YTD deposit outflow is now the highest on record. One look at the chart below confirms that nobody in Spain got the June 29 Euro summit memo that "Europe is fixed"...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day-spain-real-pain-may-be-just-beginning

Spain's Economic Collapse Results In Whopping 5% Deposit Outflow In July

A rush by consumers and firms to pull their money out of Spanish banks intensified in July, with private sector deposits falling almost 5 percent as Spain was sucked into the centre of the euro zone debt crisis.

Private-sector deposits at Spanish banks fell to 1.509 trillion euros at end-July from 1.583 trillion in the previous month.

However, in a more positive sign, Greek banks stopped bleeding deposits in July after June elections decreased the worst fears of the country dropping out of the common currency bloc, European Central Bank data showed on Tuesday.

Speculation about Greece possibly quitting the euro was intense in May when anti-bailout parties saw a strong showing in elections, but the Greek central bank said the process had reversed after the elections.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spains-economic-collapse-results-whopping-5-deposit-outflow-july

Sunday, August 26, 2012

Tyler Durden's picture For Dexia, Third Bailout Will Be The Charm. They Promise

Bail me out once, shame on you; bail me twice, shame on me; shame on me; come back for a third (and final, we promise!) bailout, only a Franco-Belgian SNAFU is capable of such Einstein-ian repetition. Dexia, that stress-test-passing bastion of all things entirely wrong with European banking and politics is back at the trough. Reuters is reporting what we have known all along, that without massive additional capital injections the bad-bank, crap-bank model simply cannot work. To wit: Dexia needs to recap its Luxembourg unit (BIL) before its apparently 'imminent' sale to a Qatari sovereign wealth fund (one more billionaire sucker family born every day it seems). The somewhat comical aspect is that the post-October (the second - and final, we promise - bailout), BIL's 'legacy' bond portfolio was 'transferred' to its parent Dexia at December 2011 prices - creating a net loss of EUR1.9bn for the subsidiary. This significantly affected the sub's solvency - making it unlikely to meet its capital requirements (which it was 'sure' would be 9% Tier 1 by now!). But given Dexia's own extensive losses - EUR11.6bn in 2011 and EUR1.2bn in the first six months of 2012 - a capital increase for Dexia BIL may force Dexia to seek funds itself. That would mean mo' money, mo' bailout from the states currently guaranteeing its borrowings - principally Belgium and France, and to a lesser extent Luxembourg - which now look set to rise to EUR90bn in aggregate!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/dexia-third-bailout-will-be-charm-they-promise 

Thursday, August 23, 2012

The Most Important Chart In The World


Back in my Bernstein days, I never really took a large amount of presentation materials to most of my meetings.  However, there was one chart that I always printed out and brought with me and I called it “The Most Important Chart in the World.”  It still is.  The chart I am referring to is the ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Gold Price.  In a nutshell, charting this ratio demonstrates the “real” return on stocks adjusted for inflation or currency debasement.  As we all know, the Zimbabwe stock market essentially went up to infinity during their hyperinflation but did anyone get rich from that?  Of course not, the shares were denominated in a currency that was on its way to worthlessness.  At the moment, with many U.S. stock indices hitting new post-2008 highs there seems to be a general view that stocks as an asset class will do well in an inflationary environment.  As a result, whenever there is actually QE or even the mention of the potential resumption of Fed balance sheet expansion there is a rally in equity prices.  In fact, I think the entire investor class in the U.S. has been lulled into a sense of sleep and complacency at the moment.  There are two things I want to point out to people when they are considering whether to increase exposure to equities broadly or not.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-most-important-chart-theworld

Pre-war Germany has blueprint to end debt crisis


Professor Richard Werner, of the University of Southampton, says he has found a way to resolve Europe’s financial crisis, and Germany had it all along. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/citydiary/9478382/Pre-war-Germany-has-blueprint-to-end-debt-crisis.html

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Radio Interview with Steve Keen

http://95bfm.com/assets/sm/206935/3/stevekeen.mp3

Monopoly: The rules


Taxes Vs Debt: Where Does US Funding Come From

A key sticking point in the ongoing presidential debate is what happens to US tax rates, either for just those making over an arbitrary $250,000/year, aka "the rich", or for everyone. To put this debate into perspective, here is a chart that shows how over the past 20 years the US funding needs (demonstrated previously here), have been met in terms of the only two components of US funding - tax revenue and debt issuance.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/taxes-vs-debt-where-does-us-funding-come-chart-day

Monday, August 20, 2012

Iceland Was Right, We Were Wrong: The IMF


For approximately three years, our governments, the banking cabal, and the Corporate Media have assured us that they knew the appropriate approach for fixing the economies that they had previously crippled with their own mismanagement. We were told that the key was to stomp on the Little People with "austerity" in order to continue making full interest payments to the Bond Parasites -- at any/all costs.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11665082/1/iceland-was-right-we-were-wrong-the-imf.html

Belize Demands Half Off On Its Debt... Or Else

"Greece set a precedent for 'Here's what you're going to get, take it or leave it'" is how the WSJ summarizes an analyst's 'shocked' thoughts on the growing game of 'call my bluff' being played among beggars being choosers. Belize is surprise surprise running out of money to pay its debts and is insisting that creditors forgive 45% of what they are owed - OR allow it to delay any debt payments for 15 years (yes, seriously, read that again) - leaving a default on the country's $543.8mm almost inevitable. Three things stand out to us: 1) the nation's government shunned bondholders by simply posting a note on its website that it would be 'skipping a payment' as opposed to telling creditors directly; 2) none other than 'Long GGBs are the slam-dunk trade-of-the-year' Greylock Capital are "mystified" that yet another trade has gone pear-shaped adding that they are "sure every country could benefit from not paying their debt but this isn't the way to do it!"; and 3) this would be one of the worst restructuring terms ever as the "Greek effect" could inspire other countries to pursue restructurings on more favorable terms - especially given that: "Even if you don't need a restructuring you can force one upon bondholders because it's so hard to recover money from a sovereign who won't pay,"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/aftermath-greek-blue-light-precedent-belize-demands-half-its-debt-or-else

Sunday, August 19, 2012

The Modern Debt Jubilee


 The modern “debt jubilee” is characterised as “quantitative easing for the public”. It has been boiled down to a procedure where the central bank does not create new money by buying the sovereign debt of the government. Instead, it takes an arbitrary number, writes a check for that number, and deposits it in the bank account of every individual in the nation. Debtors must use the newly-created money to pay down or pay off debt. Those who are not in debt can use it as a free windfall to spend or “invest” as they see fit. This, it is said, is the only way left to restart economic “growth” and finally get the spectre of unending financial crisis out of the headlines. It is the latest of a long string of “print to cover” remedies.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/modern-debt-jubilee 

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Deleveraging Needed In Next 4 Years: $28 Trillion



Over the past several years, there has been much speculation and numerous reports that America is deleveraging. It isn't. In fact, consolidated across the 5 different kinds of American debt, which takes into account not only federal, but also financial, municipal, household and non-financial, total debt as a percentage of GDP has not budged over the past 4 years and is flat at 350% of GDP. Which simply means that all of the household debt that has supposedly vaporized (at least until the next major Flow of Funds revision), all of which has taken place purely from discharges on uncollectable mortgage and credit card debt, has been replaced by federal debt, while financial debt has merely soared to take the place of the collapsing shadow debt which is imploding as the confidence in a Fed-free financial system erodes to zero. Which of course, is the worst possible outcome: instead of funding private, individual entrepreneurs, who are the true basis for America's historic growth, prosperity and success (and who, unlike the government can and will fail if they dont allocated capital efficiently) the transferred debt (from household to federal) merely goes to fund the unproductive components of the US economy: the US government which by definition produces nothing, and the financial sector, whose only product is financial innovation which serves to make the TBTFs TBTFer, and pay record bonus after record bonus, and... that's it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/deleveraging-needed-next-4-years-28-trillion

Housing Recovery Lessons From Japan (In One Chart)

When real estate prices made a vertiginous ascent in the 1980s Japan the bullish refrain was that there wasn’t enough land. However, Japanese real estate prices, and even those of crowded Tokyo, have glided downwards over the subsequent two decades, accompanied by rents - interrupted by the Karate-Kid-esque 'recovery-on; recovery-off' hope that we have also started to witness in the US. Very low economic growth and a demographic headwind, despite reasonably high employment, have led to a depressed real estate market. Is this a harbinger for the West? And what defines recovery - price, volume, net equity?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/housing-recovery-lessons-japan-one-chart

Going to tht Tape


Buy ZNGA size 10000 @ 2.96

Always double down ...

Bristol businesses queuing up to join local currency scheme



The Bristol pound - usable only with member businesses in the city in southwest England - is to launch in September, and organisers are deluged with local firms wanting to sign up.
"The perception of banking and money is that it's a very ruthless system: people are out for what they can get," co-founder Ciaran Mundy told AFP.
"This is about saying yes to something new. It's tapping into a different set of values about money."
The scheme has "captured people's imaginations", he added, in a recession-hit year when British banks have been beset by scandals and ministers talked openly of a possible euro collapse.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/9478973/Bristol-businesses-queuing-up-to-join-local-currency-scheme.html

Bitcoin conf 2012

http://bitcoin2012.com/

1,000 suicides linked to hard economic times in Britain



LONDON -- A painful economic recession, rising unemployment and biting austerity measures may have already driven more than 1,000 people in Britain to commit suicide, according to a study published on Wednesday.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/15/13289934-1000-suicides-linked-to-hard-economic-times-in-britain?lite?ocid=twitter

How We Ended Up In This Economic Purgatory

 
The answer is simple: fiat paper money that is not grounded in any objective standard can be manipulated at the whim of the issuer. Without the requirement to exchange fiat money for gold or some other commodity, the central bank can issue unlimited amounts, thus making its value subject to extreme volatility and, as we have seen, perpetual debasement.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/41-years-after-death-gold-standard-look-how-we-ended-economic-purgatory

Spot The Looming Crisis



Yes, we all know that Europe is in deep, deep, trouble, and we all know that Europe has a major fiscal deficit issue which is why well over half of the Eurozone is effectively locked out of the capital markets, and only has funding courtesy of various back door Ponzi schemes funded by the ECB, and we also all know that on a consolidated basis Europe's debt/GDP is very high. But the truth is that at least Europe is taking small steps to rectify its historic profligacy and is at least pretending to be implementing austerity (in some cases actually truly doing so). How about the US. Well, the chart below should answer that particular question. Because while the consolidated GDP of the US and Europe are nearly identical, they differ very materially in terms of both fiscal deficit, and total Debt/GDP. The chart below shows precisely where the differences lie between the United States of Europe and the United States of America.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spot-looming-crisis 

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Does Easy Monetary Policy Enrich the Financial Sector?

Yesterday, I strongly insinuated that easy monetary policy enriches the financial sector at the expense of the wider society. I realise that I need to illustrate this more fully than just to say that when the central bank engages in monetary policy, the financial sector gets the new money first and so receives an ex nihilo transfer of purchasing power (the Cantillon Effect).
The first inkling I had that this could be the case was looking at the effects of quantitative easing (monetary base expansion) on equities (S&P500 Index), corporate profits and employment.

http://azizonomics.com/2012/08/08/does-easy-monetary-policy-enrich-the-financial-sector/

The Keys To Understanding The Collapse Of The Status Quo



 Can anyone seriously claim the European Union, the European Central Bank and its alphabet-soup programs still retain a shred of credibility? Every EU/ECB "save" is fictitious, every "fix" expedient, every promise empty, every face-saving summit a living lie. Ultimately, all the posturing, promises and saves come down to an impossibility: "rescuing" phantom assets purchased with astounding levels of debt by issuing even more astounding levels of debt. Does anyone truly believe this absurdity is anything more than a transparent fraud designed to extend the life of a failed, corrupt system constructed on fantasies and lies? Those with assets are fleeing for less fantastic and dangerous climes. The handful of French millionaires who are supposed to magically bail out a failed-state that absorbs 55% of GDP are busy transferring their assets out of France, a mass exodus of capital that is also playing out in China, where those who embraced the slogan "to get rich is glorious" are transferring their wealth, ill-gotten or well-earned, overseas. So vast is this outflow of wealth that for the first time the outflow of capital from China exceeds the inflow of investment capital. The smart money is exiting, and the last batch of credulous "China story" rubes are dumping their capital down a rathole.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-keys-understanding-collapse-status-quo-credibility-and-expectations

Monday, August 13, 2012

New Lawsuit Filed Against ESM Threatens Further Bailout Fund Delay


 Just as we were complaining about lack of newsflow, here comes Germany, coincidentally just as Merkel comes back from vacation, with an update from Karlsruhe that the Constitutional court, which may reject the ESM as is in its September 12th decision, will likely be delayed even more following the filing of a brand new lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the ESM.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/new-lawsuit-filed-against-esm-threatens-further-bailout-fund-delay

Sunday, August 12, 2012

100 million more in poverty due to financial crisis



The financial crisis that started in 2008 has condemned 100 million more people to destitution globally, he said, quoting World Bank statistics.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2012-08/10/content_15657342.htm

JPM's $150 Billion FDIC Reality Adjustment


 Jamie Dimon Just Admitted To The World That JPM's Assets Are Overvalued By $150 Billion

It's easy to see on the PDF:
http://www.law.harvard.edu/programs/about/pifs/symposia/europe/baer.pdf

Go to page 9.  Under the wipeout scenario JPM describes a $50 billion trading loss turning into a $200 billion loss as soon as the FDIC takes over.  Why... ? Because JPM says they would expect the FDIC to immediately writedown JPM's assets by an additional $150 billion.

Holy mark to bullshit.  Jamie Dimon just admitted to the world that JPM is mis-marking assets to the tune of $150 billion.
It gets better. Go to page 10.  The chart shows that they only have $184 billion in equity, minus the $50 billion loss, minus 'the $150 billion fdic reality adjustment', which leaves them in a negative equity position of (-$16 billion).
So, we can extrapolate that without this phantom loss of $50 billion, JPM's real equity position is just $34 billion currently, not the $184 billion on their books.

http://dailybail.com/home/jpms-150-billion-fdic-reality-adjustment-jamie-dimon-just-ad.html

Germany Has "Reached Its Limit" On Greek Aid


 While Frau Merkel remains beach-bound somewhere, hence the lack of 'Neins' recently, her deputy chancellor Michael Fuchs made it unequivocally clear this morning in a Handelsblatt interview that Germany had "reached the limit of its capacity" over additional EFSF payments to Greece and reiterated the double-whammy that the ESM should NOT receive a banking license and that the ECB should NOT act as "money printing press in disguise" by extending emergency loans and bypassing EFSF/ESM. A decision about whether Greece should be given the second tranche of its loan will not be made until October, after the Troika finalizes its first review of the second rescue program in September. However, BNP Paribas notes that there have been a couple of developments worth noting over the past week and more are likely in the coming weeks.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/germany-has-reached-its-limit-greek-aid

Belgian National Bank Governor Gets It: Bailing Out Spain "Makes No Sense"

 
A week ago we explained quite clearly why instead of encouraging self-defeating, short-termist behavior by promising to save Europe's insolvent countries if and when needed, which does nothing to resolves Europe's problems and make it worse in exchange for a brief respite from bond selling, the ECB should be doing precisely the opposite: encouraging local governments to understand that there is no magic bazooka from the central banks. Specifically we said that "this Catch 22 of confounding cause and event can continue seemingly indefinitely, although in reality it can't. Because fundamentally what the bond market does is keep sovereigns "honest" - just as Schauble said a week ago, Spanish yields at 7% are not the end of the world - instead what they are is a signal to the country to get its spending in control in order to reduce its deficit, and fundamentally get its house in order - yes, that means getting government spending to a sustainable level and firing hundreds of thousands of workers, as well as probably raising taxes even more. It also means pain all around, but the pain is inevitable and will only be worse the longer reality is denied." This logic is so clear that only a lifelong economist, PhD or Goldman apparatchik can not grasp it: sadly that accounts for most of the people "in charge."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/belgian-national-bank-governor-gets-it-bailing-out-spain-makes-no-sense

Saturday, August 11, 2012

LIBOR Rate-Fixing Scandal Sets Off Investigations, Lawsuits Against Big Banks

 
Cities around the country, from Baltimore to Oakland, are taking legal action against the banks responsible for suppressing the London interbank offered rate, Libor. And some 75% of major cities involved in libor-tied interest-rate swaps stand to reclaim taxpayer losses in addition to libor-backed mortgage holders who lost money on the rate's manipulation. 

http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=8668

Friday, August 10, 2012

Problem in Europe is Arithmetic, Not Confidence

In my forthcoming book (Princeton University Press, February 2012) I argue that there is little chance that the euro survives the next few years, or that we avoid major sovereign restructurings and/or defaults.  I am not just talking about Greece, by the way.  I think a Spanish devaluation (accompanied inevitably by a sovereign debt restructuring) is pretty much a sure thing too, along with devaluations among many of the other obvious suspects. 

After I turned in the completed manuscript of my upcoming book, my editors were a little worried about my extreme pessimism over the euro, and suggested that I hedge a little so as not to look foolish if these things didn’t happen, but honestly I am less worried about that possibility than I am worried that by the time my book comes out Spain will have already abandoned the euro. 

“Catch Me If You Can” JPMorgue Has 11+ State, Fed & Int’l Enforcement Bodies After It


 The Morgue is like Leonardo Dicaprio in the movie “Catch Me If You Can.”  The bank has amassed a laundry list of fraudulent activities that have burst onto the radars of numerous governmental agencies and into the public spotlight. Probably, we are looking at a similar outcome as in the movie. Instead of prosecutions, the bank, like Dicaprio’s character in the movie, will probably be merely asked to go to work for the Feds in some capacity to “pay off” their wrongdoings.

http://silvervigilante.com/catch-me-if-you-can-jpmorgue-has-11-state-fed-intl-enforcement-bodies-after-it/

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Goldman Slays Muppets Again

The muppet slaying shall continue until no clients remain.
From April 10, via Francesco Garzarelli, two weeks into Q2:
Our recommendation to be short 5-yr Spanish bonds (Oct-2016) against their Italian counterparts (Sept-2016), initiated on March 14 at a yield differential of -6bp, is now at -24.9bp, against our target of -50bp. We would now close the trade, with a potential period total return of 0.35%. in light of the re-pricing that has already occurred, we advise investor to close this particular trade as markets tensions originated on concerns over Spain are now also affecting Italian rates and we do not see much more room for Italian rates to further outperform Spanish ones.
And of course this from June, which just happened to be was a tag-end in June:
We recommend being long an equally-weighted basket of benchmark 5-year Spanish, Irish and Italian government bonds, currently yielding 5.9% on average, for a target of 4.5% and tight stop loss on a close at 6.5%.
In other words, Goldman advised clients to be buying Italian bonds exiting Q1 and heading into Q2, as well as exiting Q2 and heading into Q3.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-slays-muppets-again

Disinformation: How It Works



There was a time, not too long ago (relatively speaking), that governments and the groups of elites that controlled them did not find it necessary to conscript themselves into wars of disinformation.

Propaganda was relatively straightforward. The lies were much simpler. The control of information flow was easily directed. Rules were enforced with the threat of property confiscation and execution for anyone who strayed from the rigid socio-political structure. Those who had theological, metaphysical or scientific information outside of the conventional and scripted collective world view were tortured and slaughtered. The elites kept the information to themselves, and removed its remnants from mainstream recognition, sometimes for centuries before it was rediscovered.

 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/disinformation-how-it-works

Daily Telegraph Going to the Tape

How about something even more radical, I asked him at today’s press conference? Why not, for instance, simply cancel the gilts the Bank of England has bought, thereby substantially reducing the national debt and creating the fiscal space for tax cuts? Or, rather than spending the money on further bond purchases, perhaps he should simply distribute it to consumers to spend – Milton Friedman’s famous suggestion of a helicopter drop?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/9462332/Olympic-triumph-masks-an-altogether-grimmer-reality.html

ECB Prints Euros to Give to Greece to Make Interest Payments to ECB


No entity is willing to stand up and say the obvious, that Greece is insolvent and cannot and will not pay back its debts.    Moreover, in spite of an ECB mandate that  prohibits direct financing of governments, the ECB is doing just that.   Simply put, the ECB is printing euros, to give to the Greece, so that Greece can make interest payments to the ECB on maturing bonds.   Der Spiegel notes the absurdity of this setup in The European Central Bank's Discreet Help for Greece.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.de/2012/08/complete-absurdity-in-greece-ecb-prints.html

How about quantitative easing for the people?



Through an almost astrological coincidence of timing, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board all held their policy meetings this week immediately after Wednesday’s publication of the weakest manufacturing numbers for Europe and America since the summer of 2009. With the euro-zone and Britain clearly back in deep recession and the U.S. apparently on the brink, the central bankers all decided to do nothing, at least for the moment. They all restated their unbreakable resolution to do “whatever it takes” – to prevent a breakup of the euro, in the case of the ECB, or, for the Fed and the BoE, to achieve the more limited goal of economic recovery. But what exactly is there left for the central bankers to do?

http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2012/08/01/how-about-quantitative-easing-for-the-people/

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Eurozone Endgame -- How to Leave the Euro


Renegade Economist with Prof Matthew Watson


"The Beijing Conference": See How China Quietly Took Over Africa

Back in 1885, to much fanfare, the General Act of the Berlin Conference launched the Scramble for Africa which saw the partition of the continent, formerly a loose aggregation of various tribes, into the countries that currently make up the southern continent, by the dominant superpowers (all of them European) of the day. Subsequently Africa was pillaged, plundered, and in most places, left for dead. The fact that a credit system reliant on petrodollars never managed to take hold only precipitated the "developed world" disappointment with Africa, no matter what various enlightened, humanitarian singer/writer/poet/visionaries claim otherwise. And so the continent languished. Until what we have dubbed as the "Beijing Conference" quietly took place, and to which only Goldman Sachs, which too has been quietly but very aggressively expanding in Africa, was invited. As the map below from Stratfor shows, ever since 2010, when China pledged over $100 billion to develop commercial projects in Africa, the continent has now become de facto Chinese territory. Because where the infrastructure spending has taken place, next follow strategic sovereign investments, and other modernization pathways, until gradually Africa is nothing but an annexed territory for Beijing, full to the brim with critical raw materials, resources and supplies.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/beijing-conference-see-how-china-quietly-took-over-africa

Europe's Scariest Chart In More Detail






While the surging unemployment rates across Europe are the most troublesome for politicians (and the extreme youth unemployment even more so), if we take a closer and more 'local' view of the stress, it is interestingly more regional than national. While Spain and Greece stand out, the unemployment rate, as analyzed in the chart below by Flute Thoughts blog, does not follow national borders. Northern Italy, for example, seems to have more in common with the German-speaking regions of Europe than with Southern Italy; France appears more peripheral than core; and the former eastern Germany still has not caught up with the west (so much for fiscal integration). Eastern Europe also has some striking differences as we suspect the ovals are slowly collapsing in on themselves as the reality of lower revenues from more unemployed procyclically pulls the euro-zone into depression.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europes-scariest-chart-more-detail

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Robert Shiller Has A Chiller For Housing Recovery Hopes

Recent research by Robert Shiller indicates sounding the all-clear for a housing recovery is premature since the home-price rebound, if that's what it is, doesn't yet have momentum - which is the most powerful driver of home prices. As he notes in today's WSJ, momentum is a modestly weak force in the stock market but the most important driver of the 'feedback loop' in home-price increases (followed by unemployment). "It could be a bottom, I just don't know", he adds pointing to the large overhang of homes that are either in foreclosure of near it - which would push prices down further if they were ever released to the market (wanting to see momentum carry into the Spring to be convinced). Critically, he sees bubbles once again forming in some areas, commenting that investors have been "primed to think speculatively" adding that "There was a change in our mindset. Now we start thinking about the housing market as like the stock market." Our question is, if the increasingly speculative housing market is part of the CPI basket, why then is the stock market not also part of what is now an inflationary basket chock full of QE-sensitive assets.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/robert-shiller-has-chiller-housing-recovery-hopes

77.9% Of Spanish Voters Polled Have Little Or No Confidence In Rajoy

According to the latest Centro de Investigaciones Sociol√≥gicas (CIS) poll, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s popularity has sunk to the point where 77.9% of the country’s electorate has little or no confidence in him. The survey still shows Rajoy’s conservative Popular Party (PP) ahead of the Socialist Party, however, by 6.7 per cent – eight percentage points down from the PP’s historic election win eight months ago. Ironically, during his entire his political campaign, and during his time as leader of the opposition, Rajoy’s fundamental message was that the country needed “a shot of confidence” to overcome its economic woes. Rajoy’s promises to implement swift and credible policies that would restore confidence in Spain were pivotal to his landslide electoral victory last November. However, the complete U-turn his Administration begun only days after taking office has left many feeling betrayed. Broken promises aside, his distant and elusive manners have only added to the detriment of his public image.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/779-spanish-voters-polled-have-little-or-no-confidence-rajoy

Friday, August 3, 2012

Seasonal And Birth Death Adjustments Add 429,000 Statistical "Jobs"



Happy by the headline establishment survey print of 133,245 which says that the US "added" 163,000 jobs in July from 133,082 last month? Consider this: the number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868. This was a 1.248 million drop from the June print. So how did the smoothing work out to make a real plunge into an "adjusted" rise? Simple: the BLS "added" 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition in the past decade for a July NFP print in the past decade, possibly ever, as the first chart below shows. But wait, there's more: the Birth Death adjustment, which adds to the NSA Print to get to the final number, was +52k. How does this compare to July 2011? It is about 1000% higher: the last B/D adjustment was a tiny +5K! In other words, of the 163,000 jobs "added", 429,000 was based on purely statistical fudging. Doesn't matter - the flashing red headline is good enough for the algos.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/seasonal-and-birth-death-adjustments-add-429000-statistical-jobs